englishman abroad, politics

Prediction for Election 2017


It looks like I severely overestimated the appeal of Theresa May, the Tin Lady…

original post:

2017 has been an interesting year so far. Donald Trump has been sworn in as President. Theresa May, the second female British Prime Minister, has invoked Brexit. France has sworn in a political outsider as President, so has Austria.

The United Kingdom has another general election today, to elect its future government, MPs and Prime Minister. Theresa May hopes to win a larger majority for The Conservative party, and so have an easier time pushing through laws and motions during the Brexit process.

Trump, Farage, Macron, Van der Bellen. All of them were political outsiders who weren’t taken seriously by the political establishment. Until they won.

Theresa May on the other hand… an incumbent Prime Minister, a Conservative, former cabinet minister, a clear insider. But I don’t think Jeremy Corbyn will win, as so many other outsiders have done, due to the political system we have in the UK.

In short, we have a two-party system. Whoever wins the most votes in an area, called a constituency, wins that area and the parliamentary seats that it represents. This means that one of the two big parties almost always wins. The big exception is the SNP in Scotland, whose support is localised. In the 2015 election the SNP won about 1.5 million votes whereas UKIP got almost 4 million. So UKIP got more seats, right? Wrong! UKIP got one seat. The SNP got 56.

This is because the SNP’s support is localised to Scotland, where about 5.5 million people live, and UKIP’s support was localised to England where about ten times as many people live.

The SNP won a lot of little competitions and UKIP lost a lot of big competitions.

This is what will happen with The General Election 2017: people who don’t like the Conservatives will divide their votes between Labour, The Greens, The Liberal Democrats and all manner of other parties. Corbyn is an outsider surrounded by many, many other outsiders. The Conservatives will win because, although more than half of the electorate will agree on change, they won’t be able to agree on what kind of change. The Conservatives will win a larger majority by winning lots of competitions by default – they are the only insiders running.

If the UK Political system sound crazy and broken when compared to other European countries which use proportional representation, just remember that The UK had a chance to reform voting law in 2011.

They voted no.

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